A LightGBM + ExtraTrees ensemble trained on 42+ market indicators, predicting BTC UP/DOWN across 15-minute Polymarket windows. Runs three edge strategies simultaneously — ML Prediction, high-accuracy Snipe Mode, and risk-free Arb-First. Multi-entry per window. Starts safely in paper mode.
15-minute windows give the model more time to analyse price action, the snipe more time to confirm direction, and you fewer trades to worry about each hour.
Compared to 12 windows on 5-minute markets. Fewer trades means more selective entries — each window has 15 full minutes for signals to develop, stack, and confirm before the close.
Enter the same window up to 3 times as new signals fire. ML Prediction fires first, then delta confirmation, then Snipe Mode. Positions stack as confidence grows across the window.
Faster retraining every 30 minutes on fresh Coinbase candles. More stable than deep learning on longer windows, less prone to overfitting, and significantly more interpretable.
Verified on-chain results from the 15-Minute PolyBot across BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and more — no cherry-picking.
Different market conditions require different approaches. The bot automatically identifies which strategy has the highest edge for each window and executes accordingly.
LightGBM + ExtraTrees ensemble trained on 42+ technical indicators across multiple BTC timeframes. Retrains every 30 minutes on fresh candle data from Coinbase. Fires at window open when confidence exceeds your threshold.
~52–55% accuracyWaits until ~20 seconds before window close. Reads the Chainlink oracle — the same price feed Polymarket uses to resolve outcomes — and bets in the direction that BTC has already moved. No prediction needed, just confirmation.
~80–90%+ accuracyWhen the order book misprices both sides — UP + DOWN shares together cost less than $1.00 — the bot buys both. Guaranteed profit regardless of which way BTC moves. Rare, but completely risk-free when it fires.
~100% accuracy (rare)Automated risk management that protects your capital. Every rail is adjustable from the dashboard — no config file editing required.
Trades only execute above your confidence threshold. Low-confidence windows are skipped automatically.
Automated circuit breaker — if daily losses hit your cap, the bot pauses and resumes next session.
Detects consecutive losses and auto-pauses. Resumes after 45 minutes. Threshold is configurable (default: 3).
Skips trades when orderbook depth falls below your minimum. Prevents costly slippage on empty books.
Spread caps, depth minimums, and adaptive edge requirements. Never pays through wide spreads on thin liquidity.
A configurable cap on how many times the bot enters the same window. Prevents over-concentration per trade.
If an order doesn't fill, it cancels and re-posts at a better price (up to 3×). No missed entries from stale pricing.
Fractional Kelly bet sizing (1/4 Kelly default). Position sizes scale with model confidence. Three modes: Fixed / % / Kelly.
Compared against every other Polymarket AI trading tool currently available.
| Feature | PolyBot 15M | Generic Bot A ($30/mo) | Generic Bot B ($99/mo) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML Prediction Strategy | ✓ LightGBM + ExtraTrees | ✗ | Basic signals |
| Snipe Mode (~80–90%+ acc.) | ✓ Chainlink-based | ✗ | ✗ |
| Risk-Free Arb Detection | ✓ Auto-executes | ✗ | ✗ |
| Multi-Entry Per Window | ✓ Up to 3× | ✗ | ✗ |
| Paper / Dry-run Mode | ✓ Default on launch | ✗ | Basic |
| Full Web Dashboard | ✓ BTC chart + equity curve | ✗ | ✓ |
| Self-Hosted | ✓ Your server, your keys | Hosted only | Hosted only |
| Price | $59.99 one-time | $30/mo ($360/yr) | $99–499/mo |
Three modes. Graduate from simulated trading to real money at whatever pace you're comfortable with.
Fake money. Zero risk. Watch the model make predictions and track fully simulated P&L. This is the default on first launch — you have to opt in to spend real money.
Finds real Polymarket markets and logs exactly what it would trade — but places no actual orders. Verify your strategy and settings before committing any capital.
Real money. The bot places actual orders on Polymarket. Switch from the dashboard with one click whenever you're ready — no SSH, no config editing.
Compiled self-hosted bot package. Deploy with Docker in minutes. 15-minute crypto markets on Polymarket are currently fee-free on entries.
Self-host forever
MAX_ENTRIES_PER_WINDOW setting (default: 3).Risk Disclaimer: Trading prediction markets and crypto assets involves substantial risk of financial loss. This bot does not guarantee any specific profit or outcome. Accuracy figures (e.g. "~80–90% Snipe Mode") are based on backtests and live observations — they are not guarantees of future performance. Past and simulated results do not predict future results. Only use capital you can afford to lose entirely.
Not Financial Advice: PolyBot and its creators are not registered financial advisors. The software generates signals and automates trades — it is a tool, not investment advice.
No Affiliation: Not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket Inc., Polygon, Chainlink, Coinbase, or any other third-party service referenced herein.